After nearly a month wide swings in copper prices fell sharply and break down under the previous oscillation interval along. From the current global macroeconomic fundamentals of supply and demand, the long-term copper prices will gradually move down the center of gravity, but in the short term, experienced a sharp fall in the price of copper will remain wide swings momentum.

Still optimistic about the prospects for global economic recovery

Although the negative impact from the debt default and the financial shortfall caused by the U.S. economy in the short term, the economic data released recently, the U.S. economic recovery as the two engines of manufacturing and real estate has not yet been a significant recovery in two Big industry continued weakness in the U.S. economy recovery constitutes a severe test. In addition, the U.S. economy will face the risk of the Fed's future monetary policy adjustments brought about.

In the euro area, although the fourth quarter of last year, the overall economic situation in the euro area has improved, but the data released since January, the kinetic energy recovery in the euro zone economy is not stable, high unemployment and a substantial manufacturing and industrial data the economic outlook for the euro area fell all pose a greater threat. From the relevant published data, only a slight improvement in the German economy, while France and Italy is at the edge of a recession, especially in Italy, under the impact of political instability, economic recovery prospects are more uncertain.

In China, the Chinese economy is facing economic restructuring and industrial upgrading, the local debt repayment peak of the real estate bubble and squeeze the challenges and pressures, China's economic growth this year will no doubt fall steadily.

No signs of improvement in the downstream

Data show that China's January unwrought copper and copper products increased by 52.72%. Although China refined copper imports in January rebounded sharply year on year, but the downstream situation, the actual consumer demand is not optimistic, from the operating rate of China's copper industry chain downstream of view, except for the wire and cable companies operating rate rose slightly beyond the rest of the copper rod, copper and brass with companies operating rate showed a tendency to fall to varying degrees. From the fall of copper and downstream industry chain and manufacturing PMI index in the operating rate fell purchases and imports index, the consumer demand downstream of copper and no significant signs of improvement, but showed continued weakness in the trend.

From a global point of view the current supply and demand situation, in the short term to support copper prices there are three main factors: First, Indonesia's export ban, the second is the Rio Tinto copper and gold mine in Mongolia pottery in particular cover the cuts, the three Chilean copper continued to strike. But by observation, these three factors currently unable to provide effective support for copper prices continued.

For the afternoon, analysts believe that in the current global economic recovery is still there is a big downside risk in the background, global copper supply will remain in excess of the small amount of potential, and copper downstream demand has not improved, will make the price of copper in March appears down market. And in the short term, after copper prices fell sharply after a brief, will form a technical rebound finishing market.